NCEP/NCAR temperature data is now out for February 2015, it shows January's staggering warmth in the Arctic continuing.
Using the simplest model of sea ice growth, outlined here, it is possible to create scenarios to see what the effect of this anomalous warm is on sea ice growth.
Let's assume that thickness for a given chunk of ice is 1.00m on 31 December. We then apply the average temperatures for 2016 Jan and Feb, and the period 2007 to 2015 for the same months, to the model for 31 days (Jan) and 29 days (Feb).
Sea ice thickens to 1.49m using the 2016 temperatures and 1.60m for the 2007 to 2015 average temperature. In other words this winter's warmth would only result in 11cm less thickening, not a crash in thickness. This is simply because although this January and February have been staggeringly warm compared to what one would expect, at -19degC it is still damned cold, easily cold enough to thicken ice of 1m thick.
PIOMAS data will be out sometime over the next few (working) days. I have clarified with Cryosat 2 (Thanks to Alan Muir), the last volume/thickness point there is for Feb 2015, they will be updating to 2016 'shortly' once ESA have released a reprocessed data set which is not comparable to the existing volume series. It would be good to compare Cryosat for March/April with last year as a check on PIOMAS given the highly anomalous weather this year.